Why?

Why a federal "yes" for the multibillion-dollar Transbay Terminal and Caltrain extension project in SF but a "no" for the multibillion-dollar BART-to-SJ project? Mr. Roadshow says:

The FTA gave the BART project a ``not recommended'' rating because the Valley Transportation Authority lacks the money to operate the BART extension, as well as maintain service of existing bus and trolley operations. Until that hurdle is cleared, it will be difficult to get federal funding.

Last week, the FTA gave a thumbs up to the Transbay project, saying the extensive federal environmental review process had been completed. That paves the way for the transfer of 19 acres of state property to the project, critical to financing the downtown Caltrain extension. This does not allocate tons of money for a project that will cost at least $4 billion, but it does allow work to move ahead. One reason: Those higher bridge tolls approved last year will aid this effort.

Don't get too down about the BART recommendation. When federal dollars are involved, they trickle in over many, many years and the status of a project can change from year to year.

Let's remember that dollars spent on mass transit go farther in SF than in SJ, because SF has 16526 people per square mile compared with SJ's 5114 (far more of the former being potential transit users than the latter, given SF's existing concentration of transit service--and given their observed, more established habit of actually using the service (PDF file)).

And what about the project's changing status? VTA has said the "estimated total capital cost of the BART Extension is . . . $4.192 billion (in 2003 dollars)." The Federal Transit Administration says: "The project will cost $6.2 billion." (Emphases added.)

What does the Greater San Jose get for this rising price tag? A trip to Oakland 24 minutes faster than the current ride on VTA 180 and BART from Central Fremont--and just one minute faster than the ride to Jack London Square on the Capitol Corridor:

In order to save 24 lousy minutes, we are going to spend some $4.8 billion dollars at a cost of $199 million a minute (and then spend another $20 million a year to operate it). And that, folks, is some seriously expensive time. It becomes even more expensive when you note the Capital Corridor passenger trains already operate between San Jose and Oakland and the fastest ones today make the trip in 1 hour and 13 minutes, or one minute longer than the new BART system.

And that is why BART to San Jose does not deserve the billions that the Transbay Terminal project does.